Following
polling from earlier this month showing Mike with a real chance to unseat House Majority Leader Wayne Scott, the campaign today released geographic data from the survey showing voters in both Oregon City and the rural areas of the district particularly amenable to Mike's candidacy.
Rep. Scott has decent support in his base of Canby but is surprisingly weak in both Oregon City and the surrounding rural communities. While Scott's favorables and approval rating are relatively high in Canby (63% and 50%, respectively), they are significantly lower in the rest of the district, which makes up roughly two-thirds of the electorate. In Oregon City, just 38% view him favorably and 33% approve of his job; just 20% of rural voters view Scott favorably and 25% give him a positive job approval.
In a head-to-head matchup Scott has majority support in Canby but receives a plurality of under 40% in both Oregon City and the rural communities. However, after positive and negative statements are read about both candidates, Mike gains majority support from the rural areas and a plurality of support from Oregon City voters.
"The data indicate that Mike Caudle is in an excellent position to score the upset come November," says Joel Wright, who conducted the poll. "The key is for Caudle to be able to take his case to the voters because they certainly appear receptive to it."
Data released earlier in the month show Scott's approval rating and favorables to be both below 50% among likely voters across the district. A head-to-head match-up also finds Scott below 50% - though leading Caudle by more than 20 points. However, when positive and negative statements are read about both candidates, the race becomes a statistical tie, with Scott at 41% and Caudle at 39%.
The survey of 300 likely, 2006 general election voters in Oregon House District 39 was conducted August 7-10, 2006 by Wright Consulting Services of Arizona. The margin of error for the poll is 5.8 percentage points at the 95% level of confidence. The margin of error for subgroups varies and is higher than that of the sample as a whole.
Joel Wright is an independent professional researcher who has worked on public policy issues and political campaigns for the past 24 years. He has worked on a wide variety of political campaigns throughout the West, amassing a winning percentage of 84%, and including campaigns for U.S President, US Congress, gubernatorial, state legislative and local county and city elections. He also has worked on ballot initiatives and referenda over the years, particularly in Arizona, in addition to conducting surveys for progressive organizations such as MyDD.com and the Courage Campaign.
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Mike Caudle is the Democratic nominee for the Oregon House of Representatives from the 39th district, which encompasses Oregon City, Canby and surrounding Clackamas County. To learn more about Mike, visit mikecaudle.com, Mike's campaign blog, Mike's Facebook group or Mike's ActBlue page.